International Economics Seminar Series: The Labor-Market Effects of Immigrant-Induced Demand Shocks in Norway with Jonathan Vogel, UCLA

Posted in News  |  Tagged , ,

At this week’s international trade seminar, Jonathan Vogel, professor of economics at UCLA, presented “The Labor Supply Curve is Upward-Sloping: The Labor-Market Effects of Immigrant-Induced Demand Shocks”. The paper examines how immigration affects native labor-market outcomes by considering not only the supply of immigrant labor, but also demand generated by immigrant consumption. 

Jonathan and his coauthors study Norway, which experienced increased immigration following the 2004 and 2007 EU expansions. During this period, the share of migrants in Norwegian workplaces increased from 0.4% in 2005 to 4% in 2015. To analyze the effects of EU ascension immigration the authors use individual-level employment records from 2000 to 2018, and a new dataset from Nets Branch Norway that tracks consumer spending for all Norwegian residents between 2006 and 2018. The study finds positive and persistent effects on native incomes, particularly for those employed in sectors more exposed to immigrant-driven demand, and in less tradeable industries. The estimated income increase for these workers was approximately 1.61% of the average 2003 real earnings. The supply-side effect showed no significant impact overall, though non-college-educated workers experienced slight income declines, while college-educated workers saw positive effects.