Rules in Flux: How Trade Uncertainty Is Reshaping Supply Chains, Investment, and U.S. Competitiveness

Multicolored image of shipping containers at port.

In case you missed the most recent Georgetown on the Hill Event

On Thursday, Feb. 12, experts convened at the Rayburn House Office Building in Washington, D.C. for the Center for Business and Public Policy’s series, Georgetown on the Hill. The event, “Rules in Flux: Trade Policy Uncertainty, the U.S. Economy, and the Future of Global Value Chains,” featured a panel discussion that examined how today’s shifting trade landscape is reshaping business decisions and economic outcomes.

Moderated by Ferdinando Monte, associate professor of strategy and economics, and Heather Berry, Dean’s Professor of Strategy and International Business, both at Georgetown McDonough, the discussion featured Nuno Limão, Wallenberg Chair in International Business and Finance at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service, Angela Ellard, former World Trade Organization (WTO) deputy director-general and longtime Capitol Hill trade counsel, and Sarah Wells, founder and CEO of Sarah Wells Bags.

Panelists explored how trade policy uncertainty has evolved from predictable tariff risk into broader “rule uncertainty,” affecting firms’ willingness to invest, innovate, and expand. Limão highlighted research showing that reductions in policy uncertainty can meaningfully change trade flows and investment, while today’s volatility may have longer-run consequences that are slower to appear but costly as supply chains and market relationships unwind. Ellard emphasized the often-overlooked role of the WTO’s rules-based system — covering services, intellectual property, standards, and trade facilitation — in providing baseline stability even amid tariff shocks, and discussed the ongoing push for WTO reform.

Wells offered an on-the-ground view of how rapidly changing tariffs can disrupt small and mid-sized businesses: raising costs, delaying inventory, constraining growth, and forcing difficult decisions on staffing and product lines. She underscored that shifting production locations is capital-intensive and time-consuming, and that uncertainty about what tariffs will be when goods arrive at port can deter investment decisions altogether.

The conversation concluded with a robust audience Q&A on what it would take to rebuild domestic manufacturing capacity, the compounding effects of tariffs on production inputs, and whether trade governance is moving toward a more power-based bargaining model — raising concerns about fragmentation and the disproportionate advantages of scale for larger firms.

Watch the full discussion on our YouTube channel.